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CIS Battle 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIloss 1:2
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Kalmychatawin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Mars
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 36 games
56%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Bb3px · 30 games
70%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
slimeyao · 30 games
73%
Chen
Chenoften banned
RESPECT · 29 games
59%
Snapfire
Snapfire
RESPECT · 28 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
slimeyao · 25 games
56%
Warlock
Warlock
RESPECT · 24 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
slimeyao · 23 games
48%

Kalmychata

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ankou · 20 games
55%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 18 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
WoE · 18 games
61%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Ethereal · 16 games
63%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Ethereal · 15 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 15 games
67%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
raregods · 14 games
86%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
raregods · 14 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
659 picks · 283 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
610 picks · 597 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
566 picks · 726 bans
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
545 picks · 266 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
540 picks · 324 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
493 picks · 576 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
487 picks · 463 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
472 picks · 670 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 48%
Hero pool strength51% Kalmychata
Head-to-head7 – 3
Model total61% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:14
HULIGANI 61%Kalmychata 39%
The model gave 61% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 33:32.
Game 2prediction correct40:14
HULIGANI 61%Kalmychata 39%
The model gave 61% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 38:08.
Game 3prediction missed26:32
HULIGANI 61%Kalmychata 39%
The model gave 61% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 49:21.
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 61%
Series resultKalmychata 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3