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CIS Battle 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIloss 0:2
series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Level UPwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
erase · 21 game
67%
Snapfire
Snapfire
slimeyao · 20 games
40%
Doom
Doomoften banned
v1olent- · 19 games
58%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
slimeyao · 18 games
56%
Puck
Puckoften banned
erase · 18 games
44%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Bb3px · 17 games
59%
Warlock
Warlock
RESPECT · 17 games
47%
Chen
Chenoften banned
RESPECT · 16 games
44%

Level UP

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
MaTson · 20 games
35%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Atoufix · 14 games
71%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Atoufix · 14 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
krol9ash · 13 games
46%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
MaTson · 13 games
54%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
rubikon155 · 13 games
23%
Tiny
Tiny
Atoufix · 11 games
36%
Medusa
Medusasignature
rubikon155 · 10 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
684 picks · 329 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
558 picks · 597 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
459 picks · 236 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
385 picks · 658 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
383 picks · 1114 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
374 picks · 249 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
342 picks · 351 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
335 picks · 151 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 36%
Hero pool strength52% HULIGANI
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total74% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:23
HULIGANI 62%Level UP 38%
The model gave 62% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Level UP in 51:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
Juggernautv1olent-
55% · 26 games44% · 70 games
Troll WarlordNikobaby
Troll Warlord
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiriterase
47% · 167 games51% · 199 games
Centaur WarrunnerpJonn
Centaur Warrunner
Mars
MarsBb3px
55% · 139 games52% · 83 games
Primal BeastMaTson
Primal Beast
Jakiro
Jakiroaik
53% · 149 games47% · 45 games
GrimstrokeGilgir
Grimstroke
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonslimeyao
48% · 146 games49% · 230 games
Pugnakur0patbI4
Pugna
Game 2prediction missed6:34
HULIGANI 63%Level UP 37%
The model gave 63% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Level UP in 39:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordv1olent-
52% · 94 games52% · 153 games
DoomNikobaby
Doom
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fienderase
50% · 136 games52% · 125 games
SlardarMaTson
Slardar
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerBb3px
52% · 175 games52% · 77 games
EnigmapJonn
Enigma
Slark
Slarkslimeyao
49% · 50 games49% · 183 games
HoodwinkGilgir
Hoodwink
Jakiro
Jakiroaik
44% · 217 games49% · 134 games
Pugnakur0patbI4
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 74%
Series resultLevel UP 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2