?
arrow_backBack to match
CIS Battle 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIloss 1:2
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Most Wantedwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Snapfire
Snapfire
RESPECT · 28 games
50%
Doom
Doomsignature
v1olent- · 22 games
64%
Chen
Chenoften banned
RESPECT · 21 game
52%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
erase · 21 game
67%
Mars
Marssignature
Bb3px · 21 game
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Bb3px · 19 games
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
erase · 19 games
68%
Puck
Puckoften banned
erase · 19 games
42%

Most Wanted

Tusk
Tusk
Ponlo · 15 games
53%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
fortniteMan · 13 games
69%
Chen
Chensignature
Rein · 11 games
82%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
niche · 11 games
73%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Ponlo · 11 games
64%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Ponlo · 11 games
73%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
423 · 11 games
73%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
Rein · 10 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
740 picks · 350 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
604 picks · 639 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
533 picks · 281 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
434 picks · 1187 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
432 picks · 264 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
427 picks · 704 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
426 picks · 460 bans
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
377 picks · 244 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 63%
Hero pool strength55% Most Wanted
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total60% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:10
HULIGANI 53%Most Wanted 47%
The model gave 53% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 50:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightv1olent-
49% · 379 games51% · 439 games
Storm Spiritniche
Storm Spirit
Pangolier
Pangoliererase
47% · 456 games54% · 283 games
Abaddon423
Abaddon
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerBb3px
47% · 300 games58% · 214 games
MarcifortniteMan
Marci
Pugna
PugnaRESPECT
51% · 251 game48% · 388 games
JakiroRein
Jakiro
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkslimeyao
45% · 337 games51% · 399 games
DisruptorPonlo
Disruptor
Game 2prediction missed10:27
HULIGANI 52%Most Wanted 48%
The model gave 52% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Most Wanted in 38:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladev1olent-
50% · 301 game48% · 274 games
Dragon Knight423
Dragon Knight
Void Spirit
Void Spiriterase
46% · 109 games51% · 143 games
Leshracniche
Leshrac
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerBb3px
47% · 195 games52% · 153 games
SlardarfortniteMan
Slardar
Slark
Slarkslimeyao
51% · 60 games59% · 132 games
ChenRein
Chen
Enchantress
EnchantressRESPECT
44% · 181 game54% · 144 games
LionPonlo
Lion
Game 3prediction missed16:27
HULIGANI 53%Most Wanted 47%
The model gave 53% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Most Wanted in 41:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Propheterase
51% · 296 games46% · 353 games
Dragon Knight423
Dragon Knight
Morphling
Morphlingv1olent-
53% · 201 game52% · 271 game
Ember Spiritniche
Ember Spirit
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerBb3px
47% · 254 games53% · 188 games
TidehunterfortniteMan
Tidehunter
Jakiro
JakiroRESPECT
49% · 400 games49% · 276 games
SnapfireRein
Snapfire
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunterslimeyao
52% · 119 games50% · 182 games
Shadow DemonPonlo
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 60%
Series resultMost Wanted 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3