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Leon Masters #1 · BO2
result vs prediction
HULIGANIloss 1:1
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 1:1
MOUZloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Bb3px · 23 games
52%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Panto · 18 games
61%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowoften banned
OneJey · 17 games
35%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Bb3px · 17 games
47%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
re1bl · 16 games
44%
Luna
Luna
RAMZES666 · 15 games
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OneJey · 13 games
38%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
re1bl · 13 games
69%

MOUZ

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
bengan · 38 games
66%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Ulnit · 33 games
64%
Tiny
Tinysignature
NARMAN · 31 game
65%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 30 games
73%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
bengan · 25 games
68%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 22 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Supream^ · 21 game
52%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctorsignature
bengan · 19 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
478 picks · 225 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
454 picks · 751 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
434 picks · 415 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
430 picks · 627 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
397 picks · 727 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
381 picks · 166 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
359 picks · 1010 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
344 picks · 719 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 60%
Hero pool strength56% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total61% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:16
HULIGANI 40%MOUZ 60%
The model gave 60% on MOUZ — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 36:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
Clinkzv1olent-
48% · 21 game52% · 62 games
UrsaUlnit
Ursa
Lina
Linare1bl
44% · 81 game60% · 92 games
Death ProphetSupream^
Death Prophet
Mars
MarsBb3px
49% · 175 games53% · 263 games
Centaur WarrunnerSabeRLight-
Centaur Warrunner
Clockwerk
ClockwerkPanto
51% · 120 games46% · 145 games
SnapfireNARMAN
Snapfire
Rubick
RubickOneJey
38% · 235 games62% · 70 games
Treant Protectorbengan
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction correct28:40
HULIGANI 39%MOUZ 61%
The model gave 61% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 38:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
Razorv1olent-
44% · 136 games55% · 159 games
LifestealerUlnit
Lifestealer
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightre1bl
42% · 89 games57% · 175 games
LeshracSupream^
Leshrac
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritBb3px
38% · 105 games63% · 56 games
Legion CommanderSabeRLight-
Legion Commander
Disruptor
DisruptorPanto
44% · 82 games62% · 119 games
WeaverNARMAN
Weaver
Tiny
TinyOneJey
41% · 177 games56% · 80 games
Treant Protectorbengan
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 61%
Accuracy by game1 of 2