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PREMIER SERIES · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIloss 1:2
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 1:2
MOUZwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Bb3px · 42 games
71%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 40 games
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
slimeyao · 39 games
69%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
RESPECT · 37 games
49%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
slimeyao · 37 games
68%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
erase · 30 games
63%
Tiny
Tiny
erase · 30 games
57%
Chen
Chensignature
RESPECT · 29 games
69%

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusksignature
yamich · 65 games
68%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Crystallis · 45 games
67%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
BOOM · 40 games
60%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Seleri · 38 games
58%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
MidOne · 37 games
62%
Warlock
Warlock
Seleri · 37 games
46%
Pudge
Pudge
yamich · 35 games
51%
Mars
Marsoften banned
BOOM · 34 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
655 picks · 746 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
536 picks · 493 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
496 picks · 402 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
447 picks · 305 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
408 picks · 1104 bans
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
397 picks · 327 bans
55%
Puck
Puck
389 picks · 797 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
386 picks · 582 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 38%
Hero pool strength50% HULIGANI
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total60% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed40:20
HULIGANI 49%MOUZ 51%
The model gave 51% on MOUZ — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 45:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
Muertassnovv1
47% · 126 games53% · 368 games
BeastmasterBOOM
Beastmaster
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMirage
56% · 218 games43% · 121 game
WeaverCrystallis
Weaver
Slardar
SlardarCorrupted
62% · 180 games50% · 361 game
PangolierMidOne
Pangolier
Ringmaster
RingmasterRESPECT
51% · 224 games43% · 96 games
Rubickyamich
Rubick
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsayuw
51% · 222 games34% · 24 games
Lichaik
Lich
Game 2prediction correct40:26
HULIGANI 46%MOUZ 54%
The model gave 54% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 58:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
Beastmasterssnovv1
47% · 226 games50% · 151 game
Dark SeerBOOM
Dark Seer
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMirage
53% · 250 games49% · 59 games
AlchemistCrystallis
Alchemist
Tidehunter
TidehunterCorrupted
49% · 119 games46% · 334 games
PangolierMidOne
Pangolier
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksayuw
56% · 205 games47% · 132 games
Clockwerkyamich
Clockwerk
Rubick
RubickRESPECT
49% · 71 game54% · 195 games
Pugnaaik
Pugna
Game 3prediction correct12:34
HULIGANI 46%MOUZ 54%
The model gave 54% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 31:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
Muertassnovv1
44% · 127 games44% · 214 games
PangolierBOOM
Pangolier
Leshrac
LeshracMirage
46% · 119 games53% · 140 games
Sand KingMidOne
Sand King
Tidehunter
TidehunterCorrupted
53% · 123 games51% · 47 games
AlchemistCrystallis
Alchemist
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorRESPECT
56% · 62 games68% · 47 games
Grimstrokeyamich
Grimstroke
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksayuw
47% · 237 games48% · 220 games
Phoenixaik
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 60%
Series resultMOUZ 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3