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European Pro League Season 33 · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIwin 2:0
series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Mars
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 32 games
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
RESPECT · 28 games
50%
Chen
Chenoften banned
RESPECT · 27 games
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Bb3px · 25 games
64%
Doom
Doomsignature
v1olent- · 23 games
65%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
slimeyao · 23 games
74%
Tusk
Tusk
slimeyao · 23 games
57%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
v1olent- · 22 games
59%

Natus Vincere Junior

Snapfire
Snapfire
Gothic- · 11 games
27%
Puck
Puckoften banned
gbc · 9 games
22%
Tiny
Tiny
Niku · 9 games
44%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
rubikon155 · 9 games
22%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Hyugadoto · 8 games
13%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Gothic- · 8 games
13%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
Gothic- · 8 games
25%
Warlock
Warlock
Riddys · 8 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
768 picks · 354 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
572 picks · 300 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
551 picks · 551 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
527 picks · 383 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
510 picks · 616 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
483 picks · 287 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
467 picks · 741 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
449 picks · 505 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 24%
Hero pool strength67% HULIGANI
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total87% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:11
HULIGANI 75%Natus Vincere Junior 25%
The model gave 75% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 30:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladev1olent-
42% · 385 games50% · 463 games
Beastmasterkrol9ash
Beastmaster
Pangolier
PangolierBb3px
47% · 446 games50% · 359 games
AbaddononLiTaL
Abaddon
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knighterase
49% · 354 games54% · 246 games
Earthshakergbc
Earthshaker
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterRESPECT
52% · 354 games51% · 160 games
Bounty HunterGothic-
Bounty Hunter
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakerslimeyao
51% · 53 games55% · 364 games
WarlockHyugadoto
Warlock
Game 2prediction correct30:10
HULIGANI 75%Natus Vincere Junior 25%
The model gave 75% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 32:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lighterase
52% · 50 games50% · 134 games
Shadow Fiendgbc
Shadow Fiend
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightv1olent-
47% · 217 games52% · 8 games
NecrophosonLiTaL
Necrophos
Mars
MarsBb3px
53% · 159 games49% · 82 games
Underlordkrol9ash
Underlord
Chen
ChenRESPECT
59% · 120 games48% · 69 games
Spirit BreakerGothic-
Spirit Breaker
Pugna
Pugnaslimeyao
54% · 139 games41% · 392 games
TuskHyugadoto
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 87%
Series resultHULIGANI 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2