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DreamLeague Season 22. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIloss 0:2
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
kasane · 6 games
50%
Luna
Luna
RAMZES666 · 5 games
60%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Immersion · 4 games
50%
Lion
Lion
Immersion · 3 games
33%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
RodjER · 3 games
33%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Immersion · 3 games
67%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
RodjER · 2 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
kasane · 2 games
100%

Nemiga Gaming

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 12 games
58%
Lion
Lionsignature
so bad · 9 games
78%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
RodjER · 8 games
50%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Hellscream · 7 games
71%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
forcemajor · 7 games
29%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
forcemajor · 7 games
57%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Corrupted · 6 games
67%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Malr1ne · 6 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
264 picks · 435 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
248 picks · 387 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
245 picks · 335 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
218 picks · 204 bans
47%
Muerta
Muerta
210 picks · 298 bans
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
204 picks · 100 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
198 picks · 499 bans
52%
Kunkka
Kunkka
182 picks · 507 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 55%
Hero pool strength53% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:23
HULIGANI 55%Nemiga Gaming 45%
The model gave 55% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 34:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerRAMZES666
40% · 76 games45% · 59 games
Anti-Magev1olent-
Anti-Mage
Razor
Razorkasane
51% · 44 games52% · 24 games
Dazzlezenica
Dazzle
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritkiyotaka
48% · 289 games52% · 407 games
Pangoliernicky`cool
Pangolier
Batrider
BatriderRodjER
54% · 184 games61% · 111 games
EarthshakerHellscream
Earthshaker
Tiny
Tinyyamich
49% · 306 games47% · 298 games
Tuskaik
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed18:33
HULIGANI 52%Nemiga Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 44:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaRAMZES666
42% · 90 games60% · 75 games
Spectrev1olent-
Spectre
Tiny
Tinykiyotaka
46% · 183 games53% · 36 games
Dazzlezenica
Dazzle
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnerkasane
46% · 99 games51% · 220 games
Primal Beastnicky`cool
Primal Beast
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkyamich
43% · 51 game60% · 96 games
EarthshakerHellscream
Earthshaker
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritRodjER
42% · 110 games55% · 106 games
Lionaik
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 63%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2