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Leon Masters #1 · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIwin 2:1
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Night Pulseloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Bb3px · 23 games
57%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
re1bl · 22 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
OneJey · 21 game
43%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowoften banned
OneJey · 20 games
35%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Panto · 18 games
61%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkoften banned
OneJey · 18 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Bb3px · 17 games
53%
Sven
Svensignature
RAMZES666 · 17 games
65%

Night Pulse

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
JANTER · 15 games
67%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Kami · 15 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Worick · 15 games
47%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Kami · 14 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Hduo · 13 games
62%
Medusa
Medusasignature
V-Tune · 13 games
69%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
JANTER · 12 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Hduo · 12 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
377 picks · 780 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
351 picks · 353 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
342 picks · 246 bans
49%
Weaver
Weaver
341 picks · 708 bans
54%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
316 picks · 467 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
305 picks · 499 bans
47%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
303 picks · 370 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
292 picks · 617 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 51%
Hero pool strength54% Night Pulse
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total53% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:32
HULIGANI 51%Night Pulse 49%
The model gave 51% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 38:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
Razorv1olent-
49% · 208 games49% · 213 games
SvenV-Tune
Sven
Beastmaster
BeastmasterCorrupted
50% · 206 games43% · 178 games
Ember SpiritWorick
Ember Spirit
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMirage
50% · 274 games56% · 167 games
DoomKami
Doom
Morphling
MorphlingHellscream
52% · 265 games52% · 349 games
RubickJANTER
Rubick
Weaver
WeaverPanto
54% · 240 games45% · 286 games
PhoenixHduo
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct35:19
HULIGANI 52%Night Pulse 48%
The model gave 52% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 43:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendv1olent-
46% · 64 games45% · 111 games
MedusaV-Tune
Medusa
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMirage
52% · 148 games44% · 90 games
Chaos KnightKami
Chaos Knight
Doom
DoomCorrupted
54% · 162 games56% · 99 games
Keeper of the LightWorick
Keeper of the Light
Morphling
MorphlingHellscream
46% · 135 games50% · 209 games
HoodwinkJANTER
Hoodwink
Chen
ChenPanto
63% · 85 games44% · 85 games
JakiroHduo
Jakiro
Game 3prediction correct24:6
HULIGANI 54%Night Pulse 46%
The model gave 54% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 18:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMirage
52% · 144 games55% · 115 games
Troll WarlordV-Tune
Troll Warlord
Slark
Slarkv1olent-
55% · 93 games38% · 77 games
Void SpiritWorick
Void Spirit
Dark Seer
Dark SeerCorrupted
51% · 169 games46% · 168 games
BrewmasterKami
Brewmaster
Batrider
BatriderHellscream
55% · 212 games58% · 75 games
ChenHduo
Chen
Jakiro
JakiroPanto
44% · 88 games46% · 271 game
RubickJANTER
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 53%
Series resultHULIGANI 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3