CCT Series 2 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HULIGANI
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Bb3px · 24 games
Windrangeroften banned
re1bl · 22 games
Rubick
OneJey · 21 game
Dark Willowoften banned
OneJey · 20 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Panto · 18 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Bb3px · 18 games
Hoodwinkoften banned
OneJey · 18 games
Svensignature
RAMZES666 · 17 games
Night Pulse
Pangolieroften banned
Worick · 17 games
Morphlingsignature
Kami · 16 games
Crystal Maidensignature
JANTER · 15 games
Doomoften banned
Kami · 15 games
Medusasignature
V-Tune · 14 games
Grimstrokesignature
Hduo · 13 games
Hoodwinksignature
JANTER · 13 games
Jakiro
Hduo · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
419 picks · 309 bans
Hoodwink
414 picks · 438 bans
Weaver
393 picks · 823 bans
Tiny
391 picks · 888 bans
Phoenix
362 picks · 712 bans
Pangolier
361 picks · 512 bans
Clockwerk
349 picks · 483 bans
Dragon Knight
307 picks · 532 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 55%
Hero pool strength53% Night Pulse
Head-to-head5 – 1
Model total52% Night Pulse
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:24
HULIGANI 49%Night Pulse 51%
The model gave 51% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 25:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razorv1olent-
Shadow FiendV-Tune
Queen of PainMirage
BeastmasterKami
Primal BeastMalik
Ember SpiritWorick
RubickHellscream
HoodwinkJANTER
ClockwerkPanto
OmniknightHduo
Game 2prediction missed22:21
HULIGANI 45%Night Pulse 55%
The model gave 55% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 34:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Sirenv1olent-
LunaV-Tune
WindrangerMirage
LycanKami
PangolierMalik
InvokerWorick
Nature's ProphetHellscream
HoodwinkJANTER
ClockwerkPanto
SvenHduo
Game 3prediction correct16:40
HULIGANI 46%Night Pulse 54%
The model gave 54% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 41:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Sirenv1olent-
UrsaV-Tune
Nature's ProphetHellscream
DoomKami
Dragon KnightMirage
TimbersawWorick
SlardarMalik
RubickJANTER
WeaverPanto
PhoenixHduo
Model check result
Model favoriteNight Pulse · 52%
Series resultNight Pulse 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3