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CCT Season 2 Series 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIloss 1:2
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:2
OGwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Ringmaster
Ringmaster
mrls · 22 games
59%
Jakiro
Jakiro
RESPECT · 13 games
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
erase · 13 games
31%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Malik · 12 games
50%
Windranger
Windranger
mrls · 12 games
58%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
v1olent- · 11 games
36%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
v1olent- · 11 games
45%
Puck
Pucksignature
erase · 10 games
60%

OG

Jakiro
Jakiro
Kidaro · 23 games
48%
Tiny
Tiny
Stormstormer · 16 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
MikSa` · 15 games
33%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Stormstormer · 14 games
36%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
MikSa` · 13 games
31%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Kidaro · 12 games
25%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Daze · 12 games
33%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Daze · 11 games
45%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
524 picks · 559 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
388 picks · 230 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
365 picks · 420 bans
47%
Puck
Puck
333 picks · 868 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
326 picks · 481 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
320 picks · 897 bans
60%
Tiny
Tiny
319 picks · 303 bans
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
293 picks · 637 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 45%
Hero pool strength56% HULIGANI
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total53% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:41
HULIGANI 54%OG 46%
The model gave 54% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by OG in 45:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
Lunav1olent-
52% · 138 games51% · 192 games
DoomShad
Doom
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiriterase
48% · 348 games49% · 151 game
TimbersawMikSa`
Timbersaw
Earthshaker
EarthshakerCorrupted
56% · 177 games48% · 328 games
TinyStormstormer
Tiny
Snapfire
SnapfireHellscream
42% · 96 games48% · 70 games
SilencerLelis
Silencer
Naga Siren
Naga SirenBb3px
56% · 131 game47% · 149 games
PugnaDaze
Pugna
Game 2prediction correct36:16
HULIGANI 53%OG 47%
The model gave 53% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 53:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
Weaverv1olent-
49% · 60 games46% · 120 games
SvenShad
Sven
Puck
Puckerase
53% · 239 games50% · 289 games
Dragon KnightStormstormer
Dragon Knight
Mars
MarsCorrupted
44% · 146 games56% · 184 games
Dark SeerMikSa`
Dark Seer
Clockwerk
ClockwerkHellscream
48% · 291 game55% · 137 games
Bounty HunterDaze
Bounty Hunter
Warlock
WarlockBb3px
48% · 178 games52% · 184 games
PugnaLelis
Pugna
Game 3prediction missed19:27
HULIGANI 54%OG 46%
The model gave 54% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by OG in 54:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
Puckerase
58% · 293 games56% · 170 games
Templar AssassinShad
Templar Assassin
Sven
Svenv1olent-
44% · 130 games50% · 263 games
Dragon KnightStormstormer
Dragon Knight
Primal Beast
Primal BeastCorrupted
52% · 181 game47% · 410 games
PangolierMikSa`
Pangolier
Warlock
WarlockBb3px
47% · 214 games39% · 14 games
Skywrath MageDaze
Skywrath Mage
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonHellscream
53% · 196 games46% · 157 games
RingmasterLelis
Ringmaster
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 53%
Series resultOG 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3