?
arrow_backBack to match
PGL Wallachia Season 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
HULIGANIwin 3:1
series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 3:1
Passion UAloss 1:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Bb3px · 25 games
60%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
re1bl · 24 games
54%
Rubick
Rubick
OneJey · 23 games
39%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowoften banned
OneJey · 20 games
35%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Bb3px · 19 games
47%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Panto · 18 games
72%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Panto · 18 games
61%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkoften banned
OneJey · 18 games
50%

Passion UA

Hoodwink
Hoodwinkoften banned
Fernans · 9 games
44%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
niche · 8 games
63%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Fernans · 7 games
14%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Batyuk · 7 games
57%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Batyuk · 6 games
83%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Batyuk · 5 games
20%
Chen
Chenoften banned
flacko · 5 games
80%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
flacko · 5 games
20%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
435 picks · 366 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
425 picks · 461 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
391 picks · 839 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
385 picks · 868 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
370 picks · 766 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
365 picks · 533 bans
48%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
339 picks · 508 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
320 picks · 617 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 63%
Hero pool strength51% HULIGANI
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total74% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
HULIGANI 74%Passion UA 26%
The model gave 74% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI.
Game 2prediction correct
HULIGANI 74%Passion UA 26%
The model gave 74% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI.
Game 3prediction missed
HULIGANI 74%Passion UA 26%
The model gave 74% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Passion UA.
Game 4prediction correct
HULIGANI 74%Passion UA 26%
The model gave 74% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI.
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 74%
Series resultHULIGANI 3:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 4