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CCT Season 2 Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIwin 2:1
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Power Rangersloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Bb3px · 47 games
68%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 43 games
47%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
RESPECT · 39 games
46%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
slimeyao · 37 games
68%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
slimeyao · 36 games
61%
Chen
Chensignature
RESPECT · 33 games
67%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
erase · 32 games
75%
Snapfire
Snapfire
RESPECT · 28 games
43%

Power Rangers

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Immersion · 21 game
52%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
nicky`cool · 16 games
69%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Alberkaaa · 15 games
80%
Luna
Lunasignature
nesfeer · 15 games
73%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Immersion · 15 games
67%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
nicky`cool · 14 games
57%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
nesfeer · 12 games
67%
Tusk
Tusk
Immersion · 12 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
606 picks · 815 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
542 picks · 563 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
440 picks · 396 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
431 picks · 298 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
391 picks · 1033 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
383 picks · 672 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
371 picks · 595 bans
47%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
351 picks · 932 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 63%
Hero pool strength55% Power Rangers
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total63% Power Rangers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:23
HULIGANI 41%Power Rangers 59%
The model gave 59% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 47:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
Muertassnovv1
47% · 119 games55% · 191 game
Morphlingbashka
Morphling
Puck
PuckMirage
42% · 285 games52% · 284 games
Timbersawnicky`cool
Timbersaw
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerCorrupted
48% · 273 games56% · 144 games
LargoAlberkaaa
Largo
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonRESPECT
52% · 281 game52% · 392 games
HoodwinkImmersion
Hoodwink
Tiny
Tinysayuw
41% · 313 games55% · 260 games
ChenHduo
Chen
Game 2prediction correct32:39
HULIGANI 43%Power Rangers 57%
The model gave 57% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by Power Rangers in 42:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendssnovv1
59% · 262 games50% · 80 games
Snipernicky`cool
Sniper
Viper
ViperMirage
52% · 146 games52% · 130 games
Kezbashka
Kez
Primal Beast
Primal BeastCorrupted
46% · 171 game44% · 324 games
MarsAlberkaaa
Mars
Phoenix
PhoenixRESPECT
53% · 213 games46% · 449 games
WarlockHduo
Warlock
Tiny
Tinysayuw
46% · 505 games52% · 314 games
Shadow ShamanImmersion
Shadow Shaman
Game 3prediction missed25:21
HULIGANI 44%Power Rangers 56%
The model gave 56% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 41:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendssnovv1
56% · 304 games57% · 74 games
Lunanesfeer
Luna
Underlord
UnderlordCorrupted
52% · 215 games42% · 317 games
Queen of Painnicky`cool
Queen of Pain
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMirage
47% · 431 game55% · 386 games
Centaur WarrunnerAlberkaaa
Centaur Warrunner
Phoenix
PhoenixRESPECT
43% · 250 games47% · 436 games
WarlockHduo
Warlock
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksayuw
54% · 300 games47% · 287 games
Shadow ShamanImmersion
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoritePower Rangers · 63%
Series resultHULIGANI 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3