PREMIER SERIES · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HULIGANI
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Bb3px · 43 games
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 42 games
Jakirooften banned
RESPECT · 38 games
Shadow Demonsignature
slimeyao · 38 games
Skywrath Magesignature
slimeyao · 37 games
Tiny
erase · 30 games
Chensignature
RESPECT · 29 games
Tusk
slimeyao · 28 games
Power Rangers
Shadow Demonoften banned
Immersion · 24 games
Slardarsignature
nicky`cool · 19 games
Phoenix
Immersion · 18 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Alberkaaa · 17 games
Lunasignature
nesfeer · 17 games
Tiny
nicky`cool · 16 games
Tusk
Immersion · 14 games
Marssignature
Alberkaaa · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
671 picks · 810 bans
Tiny
556 picks · 546 bans
Tusk
499 picks · 414 bans
Warlock
462 picks · 322 bans
Shadow Demon
408 picks · 1131 bans
Mars
391 picks · 607 bans
Ember Spirit
387 picks · 667 bans
Shadow Fiend
387 picks · 1018 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% Power Rangers
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total58% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct45:39
HULIGANI 52%Power Rangers 48%
The model gave 52% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 53:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Meepossnovv1
WeaverK1
UnderlordCorrupted
Sand Kingnicky`cool
Ember SpiritMirage
PudgeAlberkaaa
VenomancerRESPECT
IoImmersion
Shadow Demonsayuw
DisruptorHduo
Game 2prediction correct33:15
HULIGANI 53%Power Rangers 47%
The model gave 53% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 34:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of PainMirage
BeastmasterTA2000
Monkey Kingssnovv1
MarsAlberkaaa
Sand KingCorrupted
Huskarnicky`cool
EnchantressRESPECT
DisruptorHduo
Rubicksayuw
Shadow DemonImmersion
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 58%
Series resultHULIGANI 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2