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European Pro League Season 32 · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIloss 1:2
series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Royal Jellywin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Snapfire
Snapfire
slimeyao · 22 games
45%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
erase · 21 game
67%
Doom
Doomoften banned
v1olent- · 19 games
58%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
slimeyao · 18 games
56%
Puck
Puckoften banned
erase · 18 games
44%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Bb3px · 17 games
59%
Warlock
Warlock
RESPECT · 17 games
47%
Chen
Chenoften banned
RESPECT · 16 games
44%

Royal Jelly

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
691 picks · 334 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
573 picks · 608 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
468 picks · 250 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
394 picks · 1129 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
392 picks · 668 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
392 picks · 248 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
364 picks · 365 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
337 picks · 386 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% HULIGANI
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total88% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:4
HULIGANI 72%Royal Jelly 28%
The model gave 72% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 27:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-Magev1olent-
56% · 44 games47% · 108 games
Night StalkerMiyaoo
Night Stalker
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knighterase
52% · 207 games47% · 297 games
Storm SpiritStojkov
Storm Spirit
Dark Seer
Dark SeerCorrupted
50% · 86 games52% · 221 game
Snapfireani-san
Snapfire
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakerslimeyao
55% · 17 games
Jakiro
JakiroRESPECT
46% · 272 games
Game 2prediction missed19:34
HULIGANI 74%Royal Jelly 26%
The model gave 74% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Royal Jelly in 42:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Huskar
Huskarv1olent-
62% · 32 games46% · 287 games
PuckStojkov
Puck
Void Spirit
Void Spiriterase
52% · 213 games44% · 185 games
PangolierMiyaoo
Pangolier
Primal Beast
Primal BeastCorrupted
45% · 137 games51% · 59 games
Ringmasterani-san
Ringmaster
Naga Siren
Naga SirenRESPECT
62% · 117 games
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mageslimeyao
45% · 32 games
Game 3prediction missed18:39
HULIGANI 75%Royal Jelly 25%
The model gave 75% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Royal Jelly in 47:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusav1olent-
62% · 119 games45% · 366 games
PuckStojkov
Puck
Void Spirit
Void Spiriterase
52% · 215 games47% · 110 games
SlardarMiyaoo
Slardar
Night Stalker
Night StalkerCorrupted
56% · 79 games41% · 149 games
Hoodwinkani-san
Hoodwink
Ringmaster
Ringmasterslimeyao
54% · 121 game
Naga Siren
Naga SirenRESPECT
55% · 91 game
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 88%
Series resultRoyal Jelly 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3