European Pro League Season 33 · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIloss 0:2series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Lynxwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HULIGANI
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 36 games
Pugnasignature
slimeyao · 31 game
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Bb3px · 30 games
Chenoften banned
RESPECT · 29 games
Snapfire
RESPECT · 28 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
slimeyao · 26 games
Warlock
RESPECT · 24 games
Disruptor
slimeyao · 23 games
Team Lynx
Centaur Warrunnersignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 14 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 13 games
Marsoften banned
fortniteMan · 11 games
Slardaroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 11 games
Gyrocoptersignature
7jesu · 10 games
Pucksignature
mellojul · 10 games
Abaddonoften banned
7jesu · 8 games
Axe
VladikTheHtiviy · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
613 picks · 598 bans
Snapfire
605 picks · 247 bans
Dragon Knight
547 picks · 718 bans
Tusk
524 picks · 320 bans
Hoodwink
505 picks · 253 bans
Centaur Warrunner
477 picks · 549 bans
Disruptor
439 picks · 423 bans
Mars
435 picks · 614 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 48%
Hero pool strength56% HULIGANI
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total80% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:34
HULIGANI 67%Team Lynx 33%
The model gave 67% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 37:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slarkv1olent-
Ursa7jesu
Tinyerase
Ember Spiritmellojul
Centaur WarrunnerBb3px
Sand KingVladikTheHtiviy
Skywrath MageRESPECT
Tuskslimeyao
Game 2prediction missed7:25
HULIGANI 68%Team Lynx 32%
The model gave 68% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 24:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
DoomBb3px
Abaddon7jesu
Kezv1olent-
MarsVladikTheHtiviy
Kunkkaerase
Keeper of the Lightmellojul
ChenRESPECT
Shadow Shamanslimeyao
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 80%
Series resultTeam Lynx 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2