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ESL One Bangkok 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIwin 2:0
series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Secretloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Panto · 19 games
68%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
OneJey · 18 games
50%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
v1olent- · 17 games
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
OneJey · 17 games
53%
Rubick
Rubick
Panto · 16 games
44%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Panto · 15 games
47%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mirage · 15 games
67%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Hellscream · 13 games
62%

Team Secret

Rubick
Rubick
Shishak · 9 games
44%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
BOOM · 7 games
71%
Batrider
Batrider
Puppey · 5 games
60%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Puppey · 5 games
40%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
423 · 5 games
100%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Adzantick · 5 games
80%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Kyzko · 5 games
80%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Puppey · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
440 picks · 586 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
377 picks · 397 bans
52%
Luna
Luna
327 picks · 392 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
326 picks · 457 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
306 picks · 585 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
289 picks · 156 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
275 picks · 327 bans
52%
Sand King
Sand King
262 picks · 774 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 55%
Hero pool strength52% Team Secret
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct49:36
HULIGANI 62%Team Secret 38%
The model gave 62% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 53:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightv1olent-
49% · 243 games49% · 246 games
Alchemist423
Alchemist
Puck
PuckMirage
50% · 185 games48% · 296 games
Storm SpiritAinkrad
Storm Spirit
Beastmaster
BeastmasterAlberkaaa
52% · 133 games46% · 245 games
Razorseimei
Razor
Batrider
BatriderPanto
53% · 222 games51% · 174 games
Keeper of the LightPuppey
Keeper of the Light
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonOneJey
51% · 207 games49% · 29 games
Bounty HunterKyzko
Bounty Hunter
Game 2prediction correct22:17
HULIGANI 62%Team Secret 38%
The model gave 62% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 31:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladev1olent-
47% · 106 games48% · 259 games
PangolierAinkrad
Pangolier
Broodmother
BroodmotherAlberkaaa
54% · 90 games54% · 19 games
Lycan423
Lycan
Invoker
InvokerMirage
51% · 145 games51% · 188 games
Doomseimei
Doom
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinOneJey
51% · 68 games50% · 40 games
Ogre MagiPuppey
Ogre Magi
Hoodwink
HoodwinkPanto
49% · 243 games50% · 146 games
Dark WillowKyzko
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 74%
Series resultHULIGANI 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2