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CIS Battle 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIwin 2:0
series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Spirit Academyloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Snapfire
Snapfire
RESPECT · 25 games
48%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
erase · 21 game
67%
Doom
Doomoften banned
v1olent- · 19 games
58%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
slimeyao · 18 games
56%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
RESPECT · 18 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
erase · 18 games
44%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Bb3px · 17 games
59%
Warlock
Warlock
RESPECT · 17 games
47%

Team Spirit Academy

Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
kyford · 6 games
67%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
rubikon155 · 5 games
60%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
Aidar · 5 games
60%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Aidar · 4 games
50%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
rubikon155 · 4 games
75%
Venomancer
Venomancer
86 · 4 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
SunshineRR · 3 games
0%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
86 · 3 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
701 picks · 341 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
581 picks · 618 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
479 picks · 253 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
402 picks · 1146 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
397 picks · 675 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
394 picks · 251 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
378 picks · 379 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
343 picks · 392 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 33%
Hero pool strength50% Team Spirit Academy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total88% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:4
HULIGANI 75%Team Spirit Academy 25%
The model gave 75% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 26:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightv1olent-
53% · 267 games47% · 209 games
Terrorbladerubikon155
Terrorblade
Huskar
Huskarerase
59% · 45 games38% · 182 games
DawnbreakerSunshineRR
Dawnbreaker
Doom
DoomBb3px
52% · 263 games46% · 155 games
Earthshaker86
Earthshaker
Chen
ChenRESPECT
59% · 142 games44% · 147 games
Dark WillowAidar
Dark Willow
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakerslimeyao
54% · 15 games52% · 39 games
Miranakyford
Mirana
Game 2prediction correct32:14
HULIGANI 72%Team Spirit Academy 28%
The model gave 72% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 44:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
Kezv1olent-
56% · 5 games46% · 209 games
Abaddonrubikon155
Abaddon
Mars
MarsBb3px
45% · 237 games51% · 270 games
Ember Spirit86
Ember Spirit
Pangolier
Pangoliererase
46% · 406 games57% · 160 games
LycanSunshineRR
Lycan
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterRESPECT
52% · 260 games51% · 252 games
Disruptorkyford
Disruptor
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonslimeyao
54% · 209 games48% · 226 games
Dark WillowAidar
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 88%
Series resultHULIGANI 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2