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European Pro League Season 34 · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIwin 2:0
series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Valinorloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Mars
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 44 games
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Bb3px · 40 games
68%
Chen
Chensignature
RESPECT · 36 games
64%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
slimeyao · 35 games
69%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
slimeyao · 33 games
70%
Snapfire
Snapfire
RESPECT · 33 games
52%
Tusk
Tusk
slimeyao · 33 games
55%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
slimeyao · 32 games
53%

Valinor

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Stoic · 8 games
63%
Tusk
Tusk
Stoic · 8 games
38%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Wuiter · 7 games
71%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
G.T.I · 7 games
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
G.T.I · 6 games
33%
Muerta
Muerta
Coblackk · 6 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Wuiter · 6 games
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Stoic · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
608 picks · 934 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
520 picks · 422 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
475 picks · 628 bans
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
447 picks · 588 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
435 picks · 944 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
402 picks · 247 bans
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
399 picks · 665 bans
59%
Tiny
Tiny
393 picks · 439 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 45%
Hero pool strength53% HULIGANI
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct45:12
HULIGANI 69%Valinor 31%
The model gave 69% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 37:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
Weaverv1olent-
48% · 75 games46% · 237 games
PuckG.T.I
Puck
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerBb3px
52% · 310 games49% · 117 games
Monkey KingCoblackk
Monkey King
Viper
ViperMirage
51% · 71 game49% · 60 games
RazorWuiter
Razor
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksayuw
50% · 280 games49% · 125 games
PhoenixJeezy
Phoenix
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorRESPECT
60% · 54 games49% · 251 game
DisruptorStoic
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct29:9
HULIGANI 68%Valinor 32%
The model gave 68% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 32:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendv1olent-
52% · 200 games49% · 90 games
KezCoblackk
Kez
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMirage
52% · 457 games51% · 252 games
SlardarWuiter
Slardar
Mars
MarsBb3px
48% · 349 games52% · 402 games
TinyG.T.I
Tiny
Mirana
MiranaRESPECT
56% · 84 games48% · 536 games
JakiroStoic
Jakiro
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsayuw
51% · 362 games42% · 172 games
Dark WillowJeezy
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 81%
Series resultHULIGANI 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2