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PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
HULIGANIloss 1:3
series probability
19%81%
probability at match start · final 1:3
Virtus.prowin 3:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Bb3px · 12 games
33%
Techies
Techies
OneJey · 11 games
55%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
re1bl · 11 games
45%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OneJey · 10 games
40%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Panto · 9 games
33%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Bb3px · 8 games
50%
Luna
Luna
RAMZES666 · 8 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
kasane · 7 games
57%

Virtus.pro

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Noticed · 22 games
50%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
sayuw · 22 games
73%
Tiny
Tinysignature
sayuw · 22 games
73%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Squad1x · 19 games
68%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Kiritych · 15 games
73%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
sayuw · 15 games
67%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Fng · 14 games
57%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
sayuw · 14 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
461 picks · 735 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
428 picks · 691 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
426 picks · 340 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
414 picks · 543 bans
54%
Lion
Lion
412 picks · 357 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
409 picks · 892 bans
56%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
392 picks · 176 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
385 picks · 187 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 51%
Hero pool strength59% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total81% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed45:23
HULIGANI 31%Virtus.pro 69%
The model gave 69% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 1:13:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Brewmaster
BrewmasterBb3px
42% · 126 games50% · 174 games
SvenKiritych
Sven
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidRAMZES666
52% · 251 game47% · 207 games
TinyNoticed
Tiny
Windranger
Windrangerre1bl
47% · 210 games50% · 169 games
PuckSquad1x
Puck
Dark Willow
Dark WillowOneJey
49% · 109 games51% · 274 games
Batridersayuw
Batrider
Disruptor
DisruptorPanto
56% · 217 games55% · 89 games
LeshracFng
Leshrac
Game 2prediction correct16:24
HULIGANI 32%Virtus.pro 68%
The model gave 68% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 37:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeRAMZES666
45% · 208 games52% · 175 games
AlchemistKiritych
Alchemist
Zeus
Zeusre1bl
54% · 55 games50% · 97 games
LeshracSquad1x
Leshrac
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerBb3px
45% · 240 games49% · 169 games
MarsNoticed
Mars
Dark Willow
Dark WillowOneJey
49% · 120 games57% · 179 games
PugnaFng
Pugna
Disruptor
DisruptorPanto
50% · 180 games50% · 183 games
Tusksayuw
Tusk
Game 3prediction correct14:12
HULIGANI 33%Virtus.pro 67%
The model gave 67% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 38:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenRAMZES666
47% · 134 games48% · 129 games
LunaKiritych
Luna
Death Prophet
Death Prophetre1bl
51% · 67 games47% · 162 games
KunkkaSquad1x
Kunkka
Doom
DoomBb3px
55% · 215 games50% · 221 game
MagnusNoticed
Magnus
Rubick
RubickOneJey
46% · 344 games53% · 150 games
EnigmaFng
Enigma
Disruptor
DisruptorPanto
51% · 121 game52% · 219 games
Pugnasayuw
Pugna
Game 4prediction correct12:37
HULIGANI 32%Virtus.pro 68%
The model gave 68% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 32:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistRAMZES666
54% · 165 games46% · 197 games
MorphlingKiritych
Morphling
Leshrac
Leshracre1bl
54% · 165 games52% · 206 games
Keeper of the LightSquad1x
Keeper of the Light
Mars
MarsBb3px
46% · 268 games49% · 260 games
BatriderNoticed
Batrider
Pugna
PugnaPanto
52% · 273 games48% · 217 games
Tinysayuw
Tiny
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageOneJey
47% · 214 games50% · 205 games
UndyingFng
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 81%
Series resultVirtus.pro 1:3
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 4