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FISSURE Special · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIwin 2:1
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Virtus.proloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Alberkaaa · 20 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
queezy · 19 games
37%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
RESPECT · 17 games
35%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Alberkaaa · 16 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Mirage · 15 games
53%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
v1olent- · 14 games
50%
Muerta
Muerta
queezy · 12 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
erase · 12 games
42%

Virtus.pro

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 15 games
80%
Enchantress
Enchantress
Rein · 14 games
57%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Nande · 14 games
64%
Batrider
Batridersignature
prblms · 13 games
69%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Antares · 12 games
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Kiritych · 11 games
64%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Noticed · 10 games
70%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Noticed · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
568 picks · 802 bans
49%
Muerta
Muerta
444 picks · 291 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
430 picks · 817 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
411 picks · 643 bans
51%
Bristleback
Bristleback
406 picks · 856 bans
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
383 picks · 340 bans
51%
Magnus
Magnus
383 picks · 1004 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
376 picks · 508 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 61%
Hero pool strength58% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total57% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed40:21
HULIGANI 47%Virtus.pro 53%
The model gave 53% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 1:06:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingv1olent-
54% · 243 games44% · 213 games
TerrorbladeTA2000
Terrorblade
Sand King
Sand KingMalik
59% · 222 games48% · 276 games
Storm SpiritSquad1x
Storm Spirit
Monkey King
Monkey Kingerase
57% · 218 games47% · 261 game
JakiroDaxak
Jakiro
Phoenix
PhoenixRESPECT
46% · 309 games54% · 54 games
TinkerRein
Tinker
Ringmaster
Ringmastermrls
46% · 100 games47% · 288 games
TuskOneJey
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct23:49
HULIGANI 47%Virtus.pro 53%
The model gave 53% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 54:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetv1olent-
53% · 55 games52% · 88 games
KunkkaSquad1x
Kunkka
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knighterase
46% · 142 games43% · 64 games
SlarkTA2000
Slark
Tidehunter
TidehunterMalik
47% · 64 games60% · 137 games
EnigmaDaxak
Enigma
Jakiro
JakiroRESPECT
49% · 138 games47% · 112 games
SilencerRein
Silencer
Muerta
Muertamrls
52% · 96 games50% · 94 games
RingmasterOneJey
Ringmaster
Game 3prediction missed32:3
HULIGANI 46%Virtus.pro 54%
The model gave 54% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 30:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterv1olent-
52% · 379 games53% · 239 games
Dark SeerDaxak
Dark Seer
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMalik
51% · 351 game49% · 281 game
DoomTA2000
Doom
Tiny
Tinyerase
51% · 529 games46% · 496 games
Dragon KnightSquad1x
Dragon Knight
Windranger
Windrangermrls
50% · 212 games50% · 357 games
MuertaOneJey
Muerta
Elder Titan
Elder TitanRESPECT
55% · 166 games44% · 264 games
Crystal MaidenRein
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 57%
Series resultHULIGANI 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3