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BLAST Slam IV. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIloss 0:2
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Virtus.prowin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
mrls · 23 games
61%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
erase · 20 games
70%
Doom
Doomsignature
v1olent- · 16 games
69%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
erase · 15 games
73%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
v1olent- · 15 games
47%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
v1olent- · 15 games
53%
Chen
Chenoften banned
RESPECT · 14 games
43%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
slimeyao · 14 games
71%

Virtus.pro

Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
V-Tune · 28 games
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Lorenof · 23 games
61%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Daxak · 22 games
50%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Rein · 21 game
57%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Daxak · 20 games
65%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 17 games
65%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 17 games
41%
Tusk
Tusk
Antares · 17 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
302 picks · 758 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
293 picks · 271 bans
48%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
271 picks · 173 bans
49%
Pugna
Pugna
263 picks · 287 bans
55%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
260 picks · 707 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
256 picks · 244 bans
46%
Marci
Marci
253 picks · 717 bans
54%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
251 picks · 590 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 38%
Hero pool strength56% HULIGANI
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total55% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:26
HULIGANI 49%Virtus.pro 51%
The model gave 51% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 38:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
Doomv1olent-
50% · 180 games51% · 39 games
Faceless VoidTimado
Faceless Void
Earthshaker
Earthshakererase
50% · 146 games49% · 356 games
BatriderDaxak
Batrider
Mars
MarsBb3px
54% · 144 games47% · 321 game
PuckAbed
Puck
Warlock
WarlockRESPECT
49% · 149 games37% · 8 games
Skywrath MageAntares
Skywrath Mage
Clockwerk
Clockwerkslimeyao
47% · 235 games56% · 130 games
ChenFly
Chen
Game 2prediction correct7:26
HULIGANI 49%Virtus.pro 51%
The model gave 51% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 40:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingv1olent-
53% · 192 games49% · 235 games
Templar AssassinTimado
Templar Assassin
Puck
Puckerase
51% · 349 games51% · 224 games
EarthshakerDaxak
Earthshaker
Mars
MarsBb3px
48% · 170 games48% · 188 games
Void SpiritAbed
Void Spirit
Enchantress
EnchantressRESPECT
53% · 161 game53% · 325 games
PhoenixFly
Phoenix
Clockwerk
Clockwerkslimeyao
52% · 292 games42% · 192 games
SnapfireAntares
Snapfire
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 55%
Series resultVirtus.pro 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2