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FISSURE Universe: Episode 5. Play-In · BO2
result vs prediction
HULIGANIwin 2:0
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Wildcard Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Batrider
Batrider
queezy · 19 games
37%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Alberkaaa · 19 games
53%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Alberkaaa · 19 games
47%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
mrls · 18 games
61%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Mirage · 17 games
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
RESPECT · 14 games
36%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
v1olent- · 14 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
erase · 13 games
38%

Wildcard Gaming

Magnus
Magnussignature
Fayde · 24 games
67%
Muerta
Muerta
Bignum · 21 game
48%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
RCY · 19 games
42%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
YamSun · 14 games
50%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkersignature
Fayde · 13 games
77%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Speeed · 12 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Fayde · 11 games
45%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Bignum · 11 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
469 picks · 466 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
404 picks · 571 bans
51%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
333 picks · 151 bans
50%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
284 picks · 580 bans
53%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
280 picks · 522 bans
47%
Bristleback
Bristleback
270 picks · 492 bans
57%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
266 picks · 572 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
265 picks · 150 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 43%
Hero pool strength53% Wildcard Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:28
HULIGANI 52%Wildcard Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 49:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
Abaddonv1olent-
42% · 99 games48% · 91 game
UrsaYamSun
Ursa
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiriterase
53% · 244 games49% · 329 games
TinyRCY
Tiny
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerMalik
53% · 149 games52% · 98 games
Night StalkerFayde
Night Stalker
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionRESPECT
53% · 115 games55% · 56 games
SlarkBignum
Slark
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightmrls
49% · 86 games47% · 119 games
WarlockSpeeed
Warlock
Game 2prediction correct30:14
HULIGANI 53%Wildcard Gaming 47%
The model gave 53% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 36:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
Lunav1olent-
50% · 141 game51% · 262 games
MorphlingYamSun
Morphling
Tiny
Tinyerase
49% · 387 games56% · 121 game
SlardarRCY
Slardar
Sand King
Sand KingMalik
53% · 292 games50% · 145 games
KunkkaFayde
Kunkka
Silencer
SilencerRESPECT
43% · 127 games48% · 377 games
JakiroSpeeed
Jakiro
Ringmaster
Ringmastermrls
55% · 204 games45% · 246 games
TuskBignum
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 58%
Series resultHULIGANI 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2