CIS Battle 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIwin 2:0series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Yellow Submarineloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HULIGANI
Ringmaster
mrls · 22 games
Jakiro
RESPECT · 13 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
erase · 13 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Malik · 12 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
v1olent- · 12 games
Puckoften banned
erase · 12 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
v1olent- · 12 games
Windranger
mrls · 12 games
Yellow Submarine
Shadow Shamanoften banned
mrls · 22 games
Tuskoften banned
mrls · 20 games
Beastmastersignature
Infernal · 16 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Mirele · 16 games
Ringmaster
Xakoda · 16 games
Dark Willow
mrls · 15 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Mirele · 15 games
Tiny
bottega · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
500 picks · 539 bans
Dark Willow
390 picks · 229 bans
Tusk
356 picks · 411 bans
Puck
333 picks · 875 bans
Batrider
328 picks · 919 bans
Pangolier
317 picks · 478 bans
Tiny
314 picks · 290 bans
Nature's Prophet
292 picks · 622 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 53%
Hero pool strength50% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct55:30
HULIGANI 58%Yellow Submarine 42%
The model gave 58% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 53:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiendv1olent-
Medusabottega
Earthshakererase
Ember SpiritMirele
MarsBb3px
MagnusInfernal
Rubickslimeyao
DisruptorXakoda
Silenceraik
Dark Willowmrls
Game 2prediction correct35:27
HULIGANI 62%Yellow Submarine 38%
The model gave 62% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 51:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Earthshakererase
Marcibottega
DawnbreakerBb3px
BeastmasterMirele
Pudgev1olent-
TimbersawInfernal
Clockwerkslimeyao
WarlockXakoda
Lichaik
Snapfiremrls
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 67%
Series resultHULIGANI 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2