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FISSURE Universe: Episode 7 · BO2
result vs prediction
HULIGANIloss 1:1
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Yellow Submarineloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
erase · 21 game
67%
Doom
Doomoften banned
v1olent- · 19 games
58%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
slimeyao · 18 games
56%
Puck
Puckoften banned
erase · 17 games
41%
Snapfire
Snapfire
slimeyao · 17 games
29%
Warlock
Warlock
RESPECT · 17 games
53%
Chen
Chenoften banned
RESPECT · 16 games
44%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Bb3px · 16 games
56%

Yellow Submarine

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 26 games
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 24 games
58%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
mrls · 22 games
59%
Snapfire
Snapfire
mrls · 22 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
mrls · 21 game
33%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Xakoda · 20 games
40%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Mirele · 20 games
65%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Infernal · 19 games
42%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
481 picks · 250 bans
56%
Disruptor
Disruptor
466 picks · 457 bans
54%
Puck
Puck
358 picks · 963 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
326 picks · 371 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
305 picks · 150 bans
53%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
293 picks · 477 bans
57%
Batrider
Batrider
291 picks · 633 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
290 picks · 224 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 48%
Hero pool strength52% HULIGANI
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total56% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:26
HULIGANI 52%Yellow Submarine 48%
The model gave 52% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 58:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightchempik
50% · 261 game60% · 73 games
Keeper of the LightMirele
Keeper of the Light
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerBb3px
44% · 216 games53% · 146 games
Ursabottega
Ursa
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fienderase
51% · 193 games44% · 325 games
Pangolierlaise
Pangolier
Enchantress
EnchantressRESPECT
49% · 160 games50% · 291 game
Snapfiresayuw
Snapfire
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkslimeyao
49% · 230 games52% · 225 games
DisruptorRodjER
Disruptor
Game 2prediction missed8:26
HULIGANI 55%Yellow Submarine 45%
The model gave 55% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 21:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordchempik
41% · 48 games50% · 105 games
Abaddonbottega
Abaddon
Pudge
PudgeBb3px
56% · 41 game47% · 135 games
Ember SpiritMirele
Ember Spirit
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyererase
44% · 17 games58% · 131 game
Marslaise
Mars
Snapfire
Snapfireslimeyao
51% · 182 games52% · 91 game
EnchantressRodjER
Enchantress
Warlock
WarlockRESPECT
51% · 270 games45% · 96 games
Ringmastersayuw
Ringmaster
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 56%
Accuracy by game1 of 2