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CIS Battle 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIwin 2:0
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Yellow Submarineloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
erase · 21 game
67%
Snapfire
Snapfire
slimeyao · 20 games
40%
Doom
Doomoften banned
v1olent- · 19 games
58%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
slimeyao · 18 games
56%
Puck
Puckoften banned
erase · 18 games
44%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Bb3px · 17 games
59%
Warlock
Warlock
RESPECT · 17 games
47%
Chen
Chenoften banned
RESPECT · 16 games
44%

Yellow Submarine

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 26 games
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Mirele · 25 games
60%
Snapfire
Snapfire
sayuw · 23 games
48%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
mrls · 22 games
59%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Xakoda · 21 game
52%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Xakoda · 21 game
43%
Tusk
Tusk
mrls · 21 game
33%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Mirele · 20 games
65%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
688 picks · 331 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
564 picks · 604 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
468 picks · 244 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
388 picks · 665 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
387 picks · 1128 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
385 picks · 248 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
358 picks · 357 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
339 picks · 152 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 46%
Hero pool strength52% HULIGANI
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total51% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:9
HULIGANI 53%Yellow Submarine 47%
The model gave 53% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 48:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladev1olent-
50% · 366 games49% · 363 games
PuckMirele
Puck
Void Spirit
Void Spiriterase
52% · 273 games45% · 228 games
Gyrocopterbottega
Gyrocopter
Primal Beast
Primal BeastCorrupted
50% · 131 game46% · 191 game
MarsInfernal
Mars
Slark
Slarkslimeyao
58% · 89 games47% · 267 games
JakiroHtrd
Jakiro
Snapfire
SnapfireRESPECT
52% · 337 games54% · 147 games
Marciprblms
Marci
Game 2prediction correct26:16
HULIGANI 50%Yellow Submarine 50%
The model gave 50% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 56:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightv1olent-
53% · 265 games51% · 115 games
Void SpiritMirele
Void Spirit
Pangolier
Pangoliererase
47% · 317 games51% · 196 games
Ursabottega
Ursa
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerCorrupted
53% · 210 games40% · 235 games
MarsInfernal
Mars
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mageslimeyao
38% · 39 games49% · 217 games
Shadow Demonprblms
Shadow Demon
Enchantress
EnchantressRESPECT
58% · 171 game53% · 239 games
DisruptorHtrd
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 51%
Series resultHULIGANI 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2