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CCT Series 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIloss 0:2
series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Zero Tenacitywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Panto · 19 games
68%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
v1olent- · 19 games
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
OneJey · 18 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Panto · 17 games
53%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mirage · 17 games
65%
Rubick
Rubick
Panto · 17 games
41%
Snapfire
Snapfire
OneJey · 17 games
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Panto · 16 games
50%

Zero Tenacity

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
DaaD- · 7 games
57%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
LeBronDota · 6 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
jAMES · 6 games
33%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
MikSa` · 6 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Thiolicor · 5 games
40%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
MikSa` · 4 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 4 games
75%
Lion
Lion
Thiolicor · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
484 picks · 664 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
418 picks · 469 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
357 picks · 529 bans
49%
Luna
Luna
356 picks · 455 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
332 picks · 177 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
322 picks · 404 bans
51%
Enchantress
Enchantress
318 picks · 653 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
299 picks · 311 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% HULIGANI
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:30
HULIGANI 64%Zero Tenacity 36%
The model gave 64% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 36:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterv1olent-
50% · 273 games47% · 301 game
LunaDaaD-
Luna
Bristleback
BristlebackAlberkaaa
50% · 162 games45% · 178 games
Ember SpiritStojkov
Ember Spirit
Invoker
InvokerMirage
54% · 197 games53% · 168 games
Sand KingMikSa`
Sand King
Naga Siren
Naga SirenPanto
55% · 188 games51% · 219 games
LionjAMES
Lion
Rubick
RubickOneJey
49% · 309 games48% · 263 games
TuskLeBronDota
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed15:28
HULIGANI 63%Zero Tenacity 37%
The model gave 63% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 38:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinv1olent-
53% · 158 games46% · 120 games
BristlebackDaaD-
Bristleback
Magnus
MagnusAlberkaaa
55% · 140 games53% · 139 games
TerrorbladeMikSa`
Terrorblade
Invoker
InvokerMirage
49% · 169 games50% · 216 games
Storm SpiritStojkov
Storm Spirit
Enchantress
EnchantressPanto
50% · 341 game45% · 289 games
TuskjAMES
Tusk
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonOneJey
55% · 306 games45% · 350 games
HoodwinkLeBronDota
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 74%
Series resultZero Tenacity 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2