CIS Battle 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIwin 2:1series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Zero Tenacityloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HULIGANI
Snapfire
RESPECT · 28 games
Doomsignature
v1olent- · 22 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Bb3px · 21 game
Chenoften banned
RESPECT · 21 game
Earthshakersignature
erase · 21 game
Marssignature
Bb3px · 21 game
Dragon Knightsignature
erase · 20 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
v1olent- · 20 games
Zero Tenacity
Puckoften banned
Mirage · 45 games
Disruptoroften banned
Se · 41 game
Enchantresssignature
Se · 35 games
Beastmastersignature
Nefrit · 32 games
Dark Willow
yamich · 30 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Mirage · 28 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 28 games
Tusk
yamich · 26 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
743 picks · 349 bans
Disruptor
607 picks · 637 bans
Hoodwink
537 picks · 286 bans
Puck
433 picks · 1184 bans
Tusk
432 picks · 261 bans
Dragon Knight
429 picks · 465 bans
Mars
425 picks · 706 bans
Jakiro
379 picks · 244 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 53%
Hero pool strength52% HULIGANI
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total58% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:27
HULIGANI 50%Zero Tenacity 50%
The model gave 50% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 40:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursav1olent-
Storm SpiritKami
TimbersawBb3px
Dragon KnightWorick
Ember Spiriterase
EnigmaNefrit
ChenRESPECT
Primal BeastdEsire
Spirit Breakerslimeyao
WarlockSe
Game 2prediction missed27:12
HULIGANI 46%Zero Tenacity 54%
The model gave 54% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 30:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernautv1olent-
Storm SpiritKami
Timbersawerase
Sand KingWorick
MarsBb3px
UnderlordNefrit
ChenRESPECT
WarlockSe
Skywrath Mageslimeyao
HoodwinkdEsire
Game 3prediction missed37:16
HULIGANI 46%Zero Tenacity 54%
The model gave 54% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 1:03:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaverv1olent-
TerrorbladeKami
Storm Spiriterase
TimbersawWorick
Centaur WarrunnerBb3px
UnderlordNefrit
ChenRESPECT
EarthshakerdEsire
Skywrath Mageslimeyao
WarlockSe
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 58%
Series resultHULIGANI 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3