The International 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionLLAloss 1:2
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Brightwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
LA
No games played over 6 months.
Team Bright
Crystal Maiden
RedPanda · 9 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
RedPanda · 9 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
ukiyo · 9 games
Tidehunter
Irving · 9 games
Batrideroften banned
TK · 8 games
Slardarsignature
Irving · 8 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 7 games
Linasignature
Ulu · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
480 picks · 223 bans
Tiny
452 picks · 743 bans
Centaur Warrunner
427 picks · 626 bans
Gyrocopter
426 picks · 410 bans
Batrider
404 picks · 746 bans
Rubick
379 picks · 164 bans
Dragon Knight
352 picks · 1030 bans
Pangolier
350 picks · 732 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 41%
Hero pool strength52% LA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Team Bright
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed50:21
LA 41%Team Bright 59%
The model gave 59% on Team Bright — the game was taken by LA in 38:48.
Game 2prediction correct0:0
LA 41%Team Bright 59%
The model gave 59% on Team Bright — the game was taken by Team Bright in 50:03.
Game 3prediction correct
LA 41%Team Bright 59%
The model gave 59% on Team Bright — the game was taken by Team Bright.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Bright · 59%
Series resultTeam Bright 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3