IESF World Esports Championship 2022 · BO1
result vs prediction
Лаосwin 1:0series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Мексикаloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Лаос
Leshracoften banned
Nevermine · 1 game
Lifestealeroften banned
JaCkky · 1 game
Marcioften banned
Beebie · 1 game
Мексика
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Marci
373 picks · 595 bans
Tiny
326 picks · 216 bans
Undying
304 picks · 544 bans
Primal Beast
250 picks · 479 bans
Pangolier
245 picks · 372 bans
Tusk
234 picks · 142 bans
Shadow Fiend
215 picks · 276 bans
Enigma
210 picks · 718 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 50%
Hero pool strength59% Лаос
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Лаос
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Лаос 61%Мексика 39%
The model gave 61% on Лаос — the game was taken by Лаос.
Model check result
Model favoriteЛаос · 61%
Series resultЛаос 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1