Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Южная Америка 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Latam Defendersloss 1:2series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:2
King Of Kingswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Latam Defenders
Mirana
Moonlight · 9 games
Earth Spirit
Moonlight · 8 games
Crystal Maiden
Aretes · 6 games
Timbersawoften banned
Valquiria · 6 games
Witch Doctor
Aretes · 6 games
Marsoften banned
Valquiria · 5 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Valquiria · 5 games
Undyingoften banned
Aretes · 5 games
King Of Kings
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
440 picks · 984 bans
Void Spirit
420 picks · 578 bans
Death Prophet
363 picks · 706 bans
Mars
348 picks · 599 bans
Earth Spirit
313 picks · 305 bans
Grimstroke
301 picks · 268 bans
Tusk
299 picks · 188 bans
Phoenix
272 picks · 405 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)32% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% King Of Kings
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% King Of Kings
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:12
Latam Defenders 49%King Of Kings 51%
The model gave 51% on King Of Kings — the game was taken by Latam Defenders in 29:20.
Model check result
Model favoriteKing Of Kings · 51%
Series resultKing Of Kings 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 1