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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Южная Америка 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Latam Defenderswin 2:1
series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Omega Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Latam Defenders

Mirana
Mirana
Moonlight · 9 games
56%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Moonlight · 7 games
43%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Aretes · 6 games
33%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Valquiria · 6 games
0%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
Aretes · 6 games
33%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Valquiria · 5 games
20%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Valquiria · 5 games
60%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Aretes · 5 games
60%

Omega Gaming

Tusk
Tusk
Zxca · 3 games
67%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knight
Mingatte · 2 games
0%
Viper
Viperoften banned
Oscar · 2 games
100%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Oscar · 1 game
100%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Jeimari · 1 game
100%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Panda · 1 game
100%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Jeimari · 1 game
0%
Lina
Linaoften banned
DarkMago · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
437 picks · 961 bans
53%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
417 picks · 585 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
363 picks · 678 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
341 picks · 591 bans
53%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
310 picks · 282 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
274 picks · 180 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
266 picks · 385 bans
61%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
264 picks · 227 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)28% vs 67%
Hero pool strength56% Omega Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Omega Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:43
Latam Defenders 41%Omega Gaming 59%
The model gave 59% on Omega Gaming — the game was taken by Omega Gaming in 40:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordCucahook
39% · 15 gameslittle data
LeshracJeimari
Leshrac
Snapfire
SnapfireMoonlight
little data48% · 11 games
BloodseekerMingatte
Bloodseeker
Sand King
Sand KingValquiria
58% · 8 games60% · 12 games
Dark WillowZxca
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction missed41:15
Latam Defenders 39%Omega Gaming 61%
The model gave 61% on Omega Gaming — the game was taken by Latam Defenders in 39:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerCucahook
47% · 20 games50% · 6 games
LifestealerMingatte
Lifestealer
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerValquiria
40% · 6 games45% · 7 games
Storm SpiritJeimari
Storm Spirit
Snapfire
SnapfireMoonlight
43% · 3 games61% · 16 games
TuskZxca
Tusk
Game 3prediction missed52:27
Latam Defenders 43%Omega Gaming 57%
The model gave 57% on Omega Gaming — the game was taken by Latam Defenders in 43:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerCucahook
35% · 8 games44% · 5 games
Chaos KnightMingatte
Chaos Knight
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerValquiria
little data50% · 13 games
Queen of PainJeimari
Queen of Pain
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritMoonlight
62% · 25 games39% · 15 games
Dark WillowZxca
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteOmega Gaming · 66%
Series resultLatam Defenders 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3