Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Южная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Lavawin 2:0series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Balrogsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Lava
Dawnbreakersignature
JimmyCoff666 · 8 games
Undyingoften banned
JimmyCoff666 · 8 games
Clockwerk
JimmyCoff666 · 4 games
Sniperoften banned
payk · 3 games
Enchantressoften banned
JimmyCoff666 · 2 games
Ogre Magi
JimmyCoff666 · 2 games
Abaddon
JimmyCoff666 · 1 game
Crystal Maiden
JimmyCoff666 · 1 game
Balrogs
Rubicksignature
Demon · 11 games
Beastmastersignature
drakesh1t · 8 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 7 games
Tusksignature
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 7 games
Leshracsignature
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 6 games
Jakiro
ShakaLord · 5 games
Mirana
Demon · 5 games
Silencer
ShakaLord · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
673 picks · 430 bans
Tusk
578 picks · 543 bans
Tiny
559 picks · 442 bans
Treant Protector
482 picks · 540 bans
Mirana
391 picks · 383 bans
Snapfire
382 picks · 208 bans
Death Prophet
346 picks · 528 bans
Nature's Prophet
341 picks · 490 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 69%
Hero pool strength60% Balrogs
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total54% Balrogs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:11
Lava 39%Balrogs 61%
The model gave 61% on Balrogs — the game was taken by Lava in 40:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ogre MagiJimmyCoff666
Nature's ProphetDM
50% · 22 games
PangolierÑengoflow KELOKE
63% · 12 games
Tuskdrakesh1t
68% · 18 games
RubickDemon
50% · 6 games
Treant ProtectorShakaLord
Game 2prediction missed27:25
Lava 49%Balrogs 51%
The model gave 51% on Balrogs — the game was taken by Lava in 57:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Treant ProtectorJimmyCoff666
UrsaDM
48% · 117 games
TuskÑengoflow KELOKE
43% · 17 games
Centaur Warrunnerdrakesh1t
43% · 65 games
SnapfireDemon
38% · 41 game
SilencerShakaLord
Model check result
Model favoriteBalrogs · 54%
Series resultLava 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2