Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Южная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Lavaloss 1:2series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Balrogswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Lava
Dawnbreakersignature
JimmyCoff666 · 8 games
Undyingoften banned
JimmyCoff666 · 8 games
Clockwerk
JimmyCoff666 · 4 games
Ogre Magi
JimmyCoff666 · 3 games
Sniperoften banned
payk · 3 games
Enchantress
JimmyCoff666 · 2 games
Abaddonoften banned
JimmyCoff666 · 1 game
Crystal Maiden
JimmyCoff666 · 1 game
Balrogs
Rubicksignature
Demon · 12 games
Tusk
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 9 games
Beastmastersignature
drakesh1t · 8 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 8 games
Leshracsignature
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 6 games
Miranasignature
Demon · 6 games
Silencersignature
ShakaLord · 6 games
Death Prophetoften banned
drakesh1t · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
913 picks · 620 bans
Tiny
642 picks · 448 bans
Nature's Prophet
543 picks · 872 bans
Tusk
538 picks · 436 bans
Treant Protector
537 picks · 544 bans
Snapfire
483 picks · 332 bans
Death Prophet
471 picks · 1019 bans
Clockwerk
441 picks · 319 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 54%
Hero pool strength55% Balrogs
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total52% Lava
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:29
Lava 49%Balrogs 51%
The model gave 51% on Balrogs — the game was taken by Balrogs in 51:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddonpayk
Monkey KingDM
Tidehunterdrakeel
PangolierÑengoflow KELOKE
SilencerJimmyCoff666
SnapfireDemon
66% · 79 games
Treant ProtectorShakaLord
Game 2prediction correct33:6
Lava 51%Balrogs 49%
The model gave 51% on Lava — the game was taken by Lava in 28:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniperpayk
SpectreDM
Dawnbreakerdrakeel
BatriderÑengoflow KELOKE
ClockwerkJimmyCoff666
SnapfireDemon
57% · 139 games
EnchantressShakaLord
Game 3prediction missed14:27
Lava 52%Balrogs 48%
The model gave 52% on Lava — the game was taken by Balrogs in 29:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlordpayk
TerrorbladeDM
Broodmotherdrakeel
TinyÑengoflow KELOKE
ClockwerkJimmyCoff666
RubickDemon
46% · 42 games
JakiroShakaLord
Model check result
Model favoriteLava · 52%
Series resultBalrogs 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3