Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Lavaloss 0:2series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 0:2
beastcoastwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Lava
No games played over 6 months.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
471 picks · 277 bans
Mars
391 picks · 537 bans
Queen of Pain
368 picks · 510 bans
Weaver
357 picks · 475 bans
Death Prophet
310 picks · 483 bans
Kunkka
290 picks · 514 bans
Ember Spirit
269 picks · 343 bans
Grimstroke
269 picks · 189 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 67%
Hero pool strength50% Lava
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total62% beastcoast
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoritebeastcoast · 62%
Series resultbeastcoast 0:2
Series predictioncorrect