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ESL One Birmingham 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Lavawin 1:0
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Kaiserloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Lava

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
JimmyCoff666 · 3 games
33%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
JimmyCoff666 · 2 games
50%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
payk · 2 games
100%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
JimmyCoff666 · 2 games
50%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
payk · 1 game
0%
Alchemist
Alchemist
JP · 1 game
0%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Leostyle · 1 game
0%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Demon · 1 game
0%

Kaiser

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Valquiria · 3 games
0%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Argius · 3 games
33%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Valquiria · 2 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Argius · 2 games
100%
Muerta
Muertaoften banned
d1smar · 2 games
100%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
TaO · 2 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
Cara · 2 games
50%
Axe
Axe
Valquiria · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
292 picks · 425 bans
55%
Phoenix
Phoenix
271 picks · 401 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
257 picks · 439 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
224 picks · 615 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
224 picks · 205 bans
46%
Lion
Lion
222 picks · 194 bans
50%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
217 picks · 100 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
213 picks · 299 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)27% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Kaiser
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Lava
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct45:30
Lava 59%Kaiser 41%
The model gave 59% on Lava — the game was taken by Lava in 54:29.
Model check result
Model favoriteLava · 59%
Series resultLava 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1