DreamLeague Season 25. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Lavaloss 0:2series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 0:2
LFLooking for Orgwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Lava
Clockwerkoften banned
555k · 4 games
Batrideroften banned
Pamplona · 3 games
Tinyoften banned
Pamplona · 3 games
Crystal Maiden
555k · 2 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Adrx · 2 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
DaaD- · 2 games
Jakiro
555k · 2 games
Phoenix
Pamplona · 2 games
Looking for Org
Marsoften banned
DarkMago · 24 games
Tuskoften banned
Yadomi · 21 game
Gyrocopteroften banned
Mnz · 20 games
Enchantressoften banned
Yadomi · 18 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Yadomi · 17 games
Tinyoften banned
DarkMago · 16 games
Pangolieroften banned
DarkMago · 15 games
Snapfiresignature
Matthew · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
386 picks · 491 bans
Muerta
375 picks · 294 bans
Tusk
357 picks · 383 bans
Pangolier
337 picks · 546 bans
Batrider
322 picks · 380 bans
Beastmaster
314 picks · 721 bans
Lion
312 picks · 152 bans
Gyrocopter
290 picks · 398 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 34%
Hero pool strength52% Lava
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% Looking for Org
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:33
Lava 38%Looking for Org 62%
The model gave 62% on Looking for Org — the game was taken by Looking for Org in 30:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PangolierÑengoflow KELOKE
Phantom Assassinpayk
PhoenixPamplona
DawnbreakerVitaly
Ogre Magi555k
Primal BeastPiPi
49% · 144 games
MuertaMatthew
54% · 57 games
LichYadomi
Game 3prediction correct15:43
Lava 35%Looking for Org 65%
The model gave 65% on Looking for Org — the game was taken by Looking for Org in 34:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
EarthshakerÑengoflow KELOKE
Monkey Kingpayk
Venomancer555k
TinyPiPi
Dark WillowPamplona
DoomVitaly
52% · 73 games
WeaverYadomi
53% · 131 game
BatriderMatthew
Model check result
Model favoriteLooking for Org · 75%
Series resultLooking for Org 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2