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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Южная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Lavawin 2:0
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Mad Kingsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Lava

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
JimmyCoff666 · 8 games
63%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
JimmyCoff666 · 4 games
75%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
JimmyCoff666 · 3 games
67%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
JimmyCoff666 · 2 games
50%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
JimmyCoff666 · 2 games
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
JimmyCoff666 · 1 game
0%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangeroften banned
payk · 1 game
0%
Lich
Lich
JimmyCoff666 · 1 game
0%

Mad Kings

Mirana
Mirana
Thiolicor · 12 games
58%
Rubick
Rubick
Thiolicor · 12 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Vitaly · 11 games
45%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
sl4d1n- · 10 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
Elmisho · 10 games
50%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekersignature
Mnz · 9 games
67%
Silencer
Silencer
Gardick · 9 games
44%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
ArzenT · 9 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
533 picks · 358 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
504 picks · 488 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
489 picks · 425 bans
48%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
371 picks · 439 bans
57%
Mirana
Mirana
356 picks · 347 bans
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
320 picks · 164 bans
46%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
288 picks · 705 bans
49%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
286 picks · 180 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 63%
Hero pool strength51% Lava
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Mad Kings
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:15
Lava 53%Mad Kings 47%
The model gave 53% on Lava — the game was taken by Lava in 39:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidpayk
54% · 20 games46% · 50 games
WeaverArzenT
Weaver
Clockwerk
ClockwerkJimmyCoff666
53% · 30 games
Game 2prediction missed25:7
Lava 49%Mad Kings 51%
The model gave 51% on Mad Kings — the game was taken by Lava in 31:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursapayk
46% · 20 games56% · 42 games
LycanArzenT
Lycan
Silencer
SilencerJimmyCoff666
42% · 22 games
Model check result
Model favoriteMad Kings · 52%
Series resultLava 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2