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PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Lavawin 2:1
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:1
South Teamloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Lava

Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Genek · 4 games
25%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Lumière · 3 games
33%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Lumière · 3 games
33%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Gardick · 3 games
0%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
Gardick · 3 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Genek · 2 games
0%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Frank · 2 games
0%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Gardick · 2 games
50%

South Team

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
ArzenT · 5 games
40%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
ArzenT · 4 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
MonHty · 4 games
50%
Lion
Lion
MonHty · 4 games
75%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
TaiLung · 2 games
50%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
ArzenT · 2 games
50%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
Wij · 2 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
ArzenT · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
412 picks · 664 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
390 picks · 626 bans
54%
Lion
Lion
387 picks · 359 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
386 picks · 315 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
371 picks · 811 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
367 picks · 433 bans
54%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
355 picks · 358 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
339 picks · 205 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 41%
Hero pool strength56% South Team
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total72% Lava
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Lava 72%South Team 28%
The model gave 72% on Lava — the game was taken by Lava.
Game 2prediction missed
Lava 72%South Team 28%
The model gave 72% on Lava — the game was taken by South Team.
Game 3prediction correct
Lava 72%South Team 28%
The model gave 72% on Lava — the game was taken by Lava.
Model check result
Model favoriteLava · 72%
Series resultLava 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3