Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Lavaloss 0:2series probability
11%89%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Thunder Awakenwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Lava
No games played over 6 months.
Thunder Awaken
Marsoften banned
Frank · 15 games
Tidehuntersignature
Oscar · 10 games
Batrideroften banned
DarkMago · 7 games
Phoenixoften banned
Mjz · 7 games
Snapfire
Matthew · 7 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Mnz · 6 games
Abaddon
Panda · 5 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Mnz · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
363 picks · 537 bans
Bane
327 picks · 247 bans
Snapfire
324 picks · 196 bans
Weaver
309 picks · 684 bans
Monkey King
262 picks · 755 bans
Tidehunter
247 picks · 400 bans
Disruptor
236 picks · 150 bans
Ember Spirit
231 picks · 323 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 46%
Hero pool strength56% Lava
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total89% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 89%
Series resultThunder Awaken 0:2
Series predictioncorrect