Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Южная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Lavaloss 1:2series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 1:2
x5 Gamingwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Lava
Dawnbreakersignature
JimmyCoff666 · 9 games
Undyingoften banned
JimmyCoff666 · 8 games
Clockwerksignature
JimmyCoff666 · 6 games
Sniperoften banned
payk · 4 games
Ogre Magi
JimmyCoff666 · 3 games
Abaddonoften banned
JimmyCoff666 · 2 games
Enchantress
JimmyCoff666 · 2 games
Silencer
JimmyCoff666 · 2 games
x5 Gaming
Mirana
Wij · 5 games
Abaddonoften banned
Benny · 4 games
Enchantress
FCR · 3 games
Death Prophetoften banned
FCR · 2 games
Luna
Benny · 2 games
Timbersawoften banned
FCR · 2 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
Benny · 2 games
Witch Doctor
FCR · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
925 picks · 633 bans
Tiny
650 picks · 454 bans
Nature's Prophet
554 picks · 884 bans
Tusk
541 picks · 437 bans
Treant Protector
534 picks · 542 bans
Snapfire
496 picks · 334 bans
Death Prophet
478 picks · 1045 bans
Clockwerk
452 picks · 327 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 67%
Hero pool strength52% x5 Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Lava
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:28
Lava 50%x5 Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on x5 Gaming — the game was taken by x5 Gaming in 46:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemistpayk
ClinkzBenny
Death Prophetdrakeel
Keeper of the LightFCR
RubickJimmyCoff666
UndyingWij
Game 2prediction correct34:15
Lava 50%x5 Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on Lava — the game was taken by Lava in 38:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey Kingpayk
ClinkzBenny
Pangolierdrakeel
SnapfireFCR
DisruptorJimmyCoff666
Treant ProtectorWij
Game 3prediction missed19:31
Lava 52%x5 Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on Lava — the game was taken by x5 Gaming in 43:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursapayk
Shadow FiendBenny
Timbersawdrakeel
DawnbreakerFCR
ClockwerkJimmyCoff666
Treant ProtectorWij
Model check result
Model favoriteLava · 51%
Series resultx5 Gaming 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3