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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Южная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Lavawin 2:1
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:1
x5 Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Lava

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
JimmyCoff666 · 11 games
73%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
JimmyCoff666 · 9 games
56%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
JimmyCoff666 · 8 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
drakeel · 6 games
33%
Disruptor
Disruptor
JimmyCoff666 · 5 games
80%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
JimmyCoff666 · 5 games
80%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
JimmyCoff666 · 4 games
50%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
payk · 4 games
50%

x5 Gaming

Mirana
Miranasignature
Wij · 8 games
63%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Benny · 7 games
57%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Wij · 5 games
100%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
FCR · 5 games
20%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
FCR · 4 games
50%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Wij · 4 games
25%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
FCR · 4 games
75%
Anti-Mage
Anti-Mageoften banned
Benny · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
728 picks · 624 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
599 picks · 529 bans
54%
Doom
Doom
517 picks · 1000 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
516 picks · 1274 bans
59%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
450 picks · 1143 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
445 picks · 918 bans
54%
Mirana
Mirana
425 picks · 224 bans
58%
Enchantress
Enchantress
420 picks · 607 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 65%
Hero pool strength52% Lava
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total53% Lava
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:32
Lava 51%x5 Gaming 49%
The model gave 51% on Lava — the game was taken by x5 Gaming in 46:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusapayk
57% · 57 games53% · 138 games
MorphlingBenny
Morphling
Batrider
BatriderHermit
51% · 152 games46% · 76 games
Spirit BreakerTavo
Spirit Breaker
Clockwerk
ClockwerkJimmyCoff666
47% · 155 games47% · 150 games
Crystal MaidenWij
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct26:20
Lava 52%x5 Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on Lava — the game was taken by Lava in 35:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusapayk
55% · 60 games49% · 37 games
JuggernautBenny
Juggernaut
Dark Seer
Dark SeerHermit
52% · 49 games49% · 63 games
MagnusTavo
Magnus
Enchantress
EnchantressJimmyCoff666
46% · 107 games48% · 116 games
DisruptorWij
Disruptor
Game 3prediction correct35:5
Lava 53%x5 Gaming 47%
The model gave 53% on Lava — the game was taken by Lava in 27:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
Juggernautpayk
50% · 40 games44% · 16 games
BristlebackBenny
Bristleback
Magnus
MagnusHermit
49% · 65 games46% · 160 games
UndyingTavo
Undying
Disruptor
DisruptorJimmyCoff666
61% · 192 games48% · 121 game
Crystal MaidenWij
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteLava · 53%
Series resultLava 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3