Khaz Modan Cup Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
LBZSwin 2:0series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Atlantisloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
LBZS
Death Prophetoften banned
Shanks · 14 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Shanks · 9 games
Tiny
CatYou · 8 games
Tusk
CatYou · 8 games
Hoodwink
CatYou · 7 games
Leshracoften banned
Shanks · 7 games
Mirana
CatYou · 6 games
Night Stalkeroften banned
Molasses · 6 games
Atlantis
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
503 picks · 438 bans
Mars
459 picks · 685 bans
Dragon Knight
428 picks · 539 bans
Bane
409 picks · 288 bans
Pangolier
356 picks · 593 bans
Storm Spirit
347 picks · 570 bans
Chaos Knight
335 picks · 648 bans
Ember Spirit
333 picks · 624 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 48%
Hero pool strength57% Atlantis
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total56% Atlantis
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:14
LBZS 44%Atlantis 56%
The model gave 56% on Atlantis — the game was taken by LBZS in 20:12.
Game 2prediction missed55:39
LBZS 44%Atlantis 56%
The model gave 56% on Atlantis — the game was taken by LBZS in 42:59.
Model check result
Model favoriteAtlantis · 56%
Series resultLBZS 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2