Moon Studio Spring Trophy · BO3
result vs prediction
LBZSwin 2:0series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Dragonloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
LBZS
Earth Spirit
CatYou · 14 games
Tusk
CatYou · 7 games
Elder Titan
xiaofu · 6 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
MS · 6 games
Ursasignature
MS · 6 games
Undyingoften banned
xiaofu · 5 games
Enigmaoften banned
xiaofu · 4 games
Medusaoften banned
MS · 4 games
Dragon
Nyx Assassinoften banned
斗圣 · 2 games
Pangolieroften banned
ghost · 2 games
Tidehunteroften banned
ghost · 2 games
Timbersawoften banned
ghost · 2 games
Tusk
斗圣 · 2 games
Axeoften banned
ghost · 1 game
Broodmotheroften banned
ghost · 1 game
Elder Titan
斗圣 · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
462 picks · 1022 bans
Void Spirit
430 picks · 620 bans
Mars
377 picks · 662 bans
Death Prophet
356 picks · 664 bans
Earth Spirit
339 picks · 295 bans
Phoenix
282 picks · 388 bans
Monkey King
270 picks · 854 bans
Tusk
266 picks · 177 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)27% vs 46%
Hero pool strength52% LBZS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% Dragon
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteDragon · 71%
Series resultLBZS 2:0
Series predictionmissed