Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Китай 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
LBZSloss 0:2series probability
17%83%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Invictus Gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
LBZS
Earth Spirit
CatYou · 7 games
Elder Titan
xiaofu · 5 games
Undyingoften banned
xiaofu · 5 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
MS · 4 games
Tusk
CatYou · 4 games
Centaur Warrunner
Irving · 3 games
Medusaoften banned
MS · 3 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Irving · 3 games
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
344 picks · 704 bans
Void Spirit
325 picks · 410 bans
Mars
272 picks · 479 bans
Earth Spirit
252 picks · 213 bans
Death Prophet
231 picks · 341 bans
Rubick
229 picks · 126 bans
Nyx Assassin
215 picks · 644 bans
Keeper of the Light
214 picks · 443 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 75%
Hero pool strength52% Invictus Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total83% Invictus Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:26
LBZS 17%Invictus Gaming 83%
The model gave 83% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Invictus Gaming in 35:57.
Game 2prediction correct9:39
LBZS 17%Invictus Gaming 83%
The model gave 83% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Invictus Gaming in 23:03.
Model check result
Model favoriteInvictus Gaming · 83%
Series resultInvictus Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2