Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Китай. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
LBZSloss 0:2series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Limitwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
LBZS
Rubick
Helios · 5 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Shanks · 3 games
Clockwerk
guoguo · 2 games
Earthshaker
CatYou · 2 games
Leshracoften banned
Shanks · 2 games
Puckoften banned
Shanks · 2 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Fonte · 2 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
guoguo · 2 games
Limit
Tusksignature
Yds · 11 games
Treant Protectorsignature
Victoria · 8 games
Tinysignature
Yds · 7 games
Doomoften banned
Srf · 5 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Xm · 5 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Srf · 4 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Srf · 4 games
Hoodwink
Yds · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
575 picks · 385 bans
Tusk
520 picks · 511 bans
Tiny
514 picks · 428 bans
Treant Protector
399 picks · 469 bans
Mirana
371 picks · 358 bans
Snapfire
338 picks · 179 bans
Clockwerk
306 picks · 196 bans
Ember Spirit
304 picks · 736 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 63%
Hero pool strength59% Limit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Limit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:35
LBZS 45%Limit 55%
The model gave 55% on Limit — the game was taken by Limit in 28:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendFonte
Nature's ProphetXm
Dragon KnightShanks
ZeusEcho
Primal BeastTzy
MarsSrf
HoodwinkHelios
TuskYds
Treant Protectorguoguo
SilencerVictoria
Game 2prediction correct22:38
LBZS 49%Limit 51%
The model gave 51% on Limit — the game was taken by Limit in 39:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
JuggernautFonte
Drow RangerXm
LeshracShanks
BatriderEcho
Dark SeerTzy
BrewmasterSrf
Spirit BreakerHelios
UndyingVictoria
Crystal Maidenguoguo
RikiYds
Model check result
Model favoriteLimit · 57%
Series resultLimit 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2