The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
LBZSloss 0:2series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Royal Never Give Upwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
LBZS
Earth Spiritoften banned
CatYou · 17 games
Tusk
CatYou · 13 games
Elder Titan
xiaofu · 7 games
Marssignature
Irving · 7 games
Pangolieroften banned
CatYou · 7 games
Sand King
Irving · 7 games
Grimstroke
xiaofu · 6 games
Lion
CatYou · 6 games
Royal Never Give Up
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
465 picks · 191 bans
Snapfire
375 picks · 207 bans
Mars
361 picks · 581 bans
Puck
354 picks · 867 bans
Grimstroke
332 picks · 307 bans
Tiny
326 picks · 245 bans
Ancient Apparition
315 picks · 443 bans
Centaur Warrunner
296 picks · 408 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 32%
Hero pool strength51% Royal Never Give Up
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% LBZS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:41
LBZS 50%Royal Never Give Up 50%
The model gave 50% on LBZS — the game was taken by Royal Never Give Up in 32:18.
Game 2prediction missed14:30
LBZS 50%Royal Never Give Up 50%
The model gave 50% on LBZS — the game was taken by Royal Never Give Up in 42:27.
Model check result
Model favoriteLBZS · 50%
Series resultRoyal Never Give Up 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2