Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
LBZSwin 2:1series probability
21%79%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Royal Never Give Uploss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
LBZS
Iooften banned
CatYou · 1 game
Leshracoften banned
Shanks · 1 game
Linaoften banned
Shanks · 1 game
Marsoften banned
Molasses · 1 game
Night Stalkeroften banned
Molasses · 1 game
Razoroften banned
Shanks · 1 game
Shadow Demonoften banned
CatYou · 1 game
Spirit Breakeroften banned
CatYou · 1 game
Royal Never Give Up
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
379 picks · 277 bans
Mars
373 picks · 540 bans
Snapfire
316 picks · 191 bans
Weaver
307 picks · 717 bans
Queen of Pain
271 picks · 340 bans
Ember Spirit
239 picks · 310 bans
Disruptor
234 picks · 158 bans
Kunkka
227 picks · 394 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 64%
Hero pool strength51% Royal Never Give Up
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total79% Royal Never Give Up
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:34
LBZS 21%Royal Never Give Up 79%
The model gave 79% on Royal Never Give Up — the game was taken by Royal Never Give Up in 37:02.
Game 2prediction missed41:14
LBZS 21%Royal Never Give Up 79%
The model gave 79% on Royal Never Give Up — the game was taken by LBZS in 37:36.
Game 3prediction missed35:23
LBZS 21%Royal Never Give Up 79%
The model gave 79% on Royal Never Give Up — the game was taken by LBZS in 58:01.
Model check result
Model favoriteRoyal Never Give Up · 79%
Series resultLBZS 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3