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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
LBZSloss 1:2
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Fusionwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LBZS

Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Shanks · 9 games
44%
Tusk
Tusk
CatYou · 8 games
25%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Shanks · 7 games
14%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
Molasses · 6 games
33%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Molasses · 6 games
17%
Mirana
Mirana
CatYou · 5 games
20%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Shanks · 5 games
20%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Molasses · 4 games
0%

Team Fusion

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
462 picks · 634 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
444 picks · 270 bans
57%
Tiny
Tiny
435 picks · 451 bans
49%
Sand King
Sand King
416 picks · 566 bans
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
396 picks · 621 bans
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
385 picks · 467 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
353 picks · 553 bans
53%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
331 picks · 283 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)18% vs 71%
Hero pool strength58% Team Fusion
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Team Fusion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:16
LBZS 46%Team Fusion 54%
The model gave 54% on Team Fusion — the game was taken by Team Fusion in 31:07.
Game 2prediction missed34:16
LBZS 46%Team Fusion 54%
The model gave 54% on Team Fusion — the game was taken by LBZS in 56:49.
Game 3prediction correct12:28
LBZS 46%Team Fusion 54%
The model gave 54% on Team Fusion — the game was taken by Team Fusion in 33:27.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Fusion · 54%
Series resultTeam Fusion 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3