Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Китай 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
LBZSloss 0:1series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Team MagMawin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
LBZS
Earth Spiritsignature
CatYou · 15 games
Tusk
CatYou · 13 games
Marssignature
Irving · 7 games
Pangolieroften banned
CatYou · 7 games
Elder Titan
xiaofu · 6 games
Lion
CatYou · 6 games
Sand King
Irving · 6 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
MS · 6 games
Team MagMa
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
397 picks · 1010 bans
Lion
376 picks · 194 bans
Mars
376 picks · 600 bans
Grimstroke
365 picks · 366 bans
Void Spirit
310 picks · 495 bans
Death Prophet
307 picks · 674 bans
Tusk
299 picks · 226 bans
Snapfire
282 picks · 160 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 36%
Hero pool strength51% Team MagMa
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total52% LBZS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:28
LBZS 52%Team MagMa 48%
The model gave 52% on LBZS — the game was taken by Team MagMa in 42:55.
Model check result
Model favoriteLBZS · 52%
Series resultTeam MagMa 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1