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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
LBZSloss 1:2
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team MagMawin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LBZS

Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Shanks · 14 games
43%
Tiny
Tiny
CatYou · 10 games
40%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Shanks · 9 games
11%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
CatYou · 8 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
CatYou · 8 games
25%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Shanks · 7 games
43%
Mirana
Mirana
CatYou · 6 games
17%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Molasses · 6 games
17%

Team MagMa

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
524 picks · 449 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
463 picks · 679 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
427 picks · 544 bans
51%
Bane
Bane
404 picks · 286 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
355 picks · 595 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
341 picks · 561 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
337 picks · 629 bans
47%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knight
334 picks · 653 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 46%
Hero pool strength57% Team MagMa
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total53% Team MagMa
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:25
LBZS 47%Team MagMa 53%
The model gave 53% on Team MagMa — the game was taken by Team MagMa in 31:23.
Game 2prediction missed27:7
LBZS 47%Team MagMa 53%
The model gave 53% on Team MagMa — the game was taken by LBZS in 35:32.
Game 3prediction correct10:23
LBZS 47%Team MagMa 53%
The model gave 53% on Team MagMa — the game was taken by Team MagMa in 30:44.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam MagMa · 53%
Series resultTeam MagMa 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3